Post by ferryfast admin on Mar 20, 2005 23:44:39 GMT -5
Melting could alter navigation
ARCTIC OCEAN: More ice recession may draw ships north.
By DOUG O'HARRA
Anchorage Daily News
www.adn.com/
(Published: March 20, 2005)
Part #2
Q. It sounds like it was thick enough and difficult enough that you couldn't be traveling that route for commercial reasons.
A. It depends on what kind of ship, how fancy it is, how ice-strengthened it is. Would you need an expensive ice breaking ship to do it commercially? Sure. But that's not what we were out there for. The answer to this stuff is that at the end of the 20th century, from 1977 up until the present, nuclear and nonnuclear icebreakers have gone essentially everywhere in the Arctic Ocean basin in the summer. I think that's an amazing story and a big change. These pioneering voyages have taken place, I wouldn't say sight unseen, but with all the other exploits -- like putting a man on the moon, and all the other exploits that we've done-- this doesn't get much visibility. But it's quite clearly very significant.
Q. How much additional ship traffic will we see along Alaska's coast?
A. That's a tough one. I don't have any good answers. I guess I would say we will see more research vessels, cruise ships, maybe fishing vessels in the northern part of the Bering Sea and in the Bering Strait. We don't know how many container ships or tankers we might see in that part of the world in the next couple decades. It's not clear. Could there be ships either going to the Russian Arctic or the Canadian Arctic to pick up some sort of mineral resources? Sure, that's a plausible scenario, because maybe there would be a longer navigation season to parts along the Russian Arctic or the Canadian Arctic. Again, these ships that sail through the Bering Strait could, but might not, go trans-Arctic. They might go to some destination in the Russian Arctic along the coast and pick up their cargo and they come back through the Bering Strait. Maybe they just do it during the summer. Now that's a possibility.
Q. If the ice has retreated so much from the Northern Sea Route, why aren't shippers using it already as a short cut to Europe from Japan?
A. It's the year-to-year variability of the ice. One year you may have open water, zero or low coverage of ice, and the next year you might have 100 percent coverage in some of these straits. But again, again, that does not mean that there will not be lots of ships -- fishing vessels, cruise ships, whatever -- using parts of the Northwest Passage (or other parts of the Arctic). It only means that trans-Arctic navigation is still a wild card.
Q. In other words, a big container ship bound for Europe or the Pacific can't just decide, "Oh, it's open this month. Let's go." Like, in July, they can't just say, "Let's shoot up over the Arctic Ocean."
A. No, no, no. I mean, this has to be planned, probably years in advance but at least months in advance. That is the tricky part. You have to have: "It's reliable. And year around. And your one ship is part of a team of ships."
Q. They can't take the chance that they would get a thousand miles up there and get delayed.
A. Particularly if the cargo is perishable. Or even the Toyotas. Well, I shouldn't say Toyotas, but the cars that are coming over. They're not perishable, but people have ordered them already, so there's this just-in-time kind thing, you've got to keep this flow going.
Q. Will we need new regulations or laws to set standards to protect Alaska from ships once it does become economic? What do we need to do to be prepared?
A. There are a number of groups working on that. We have a group of the Arctic Research Commission just beginning. Commissioner Mead Treadwell (of Anchorage) is leading, along with commissioner Duane Laible. He's from Seattle. ... And it's to scope out the research agenda for the United States for the federal agencies on just what do we need to do given that it's obvious that there will be greater marine access.
Q. The Malaysian-flagged soybean carrier Selendang Ayu lost engines in the Bering Sea in December and grounded on Unalaska island, spilling hundreds of thousands of gallons of oil. If it could happen in the Bering Sea, couldn't it also happen in the Arctic Ocean?
A. That's the issue. That's why when we're headed into the Arctic Ocean -- and when I say "we," I mean the circumpolar countries and all industry -- the systems need to be designed for both environmental protection and marine safety. All of that has to be done before the ships go up there. So if you send ships into the Arctic Ocean that have no standards for sailing in the polar region, well, that's probably not a great idea.
Q. How vulnerable are Alaska's coastal communities to this increased shipping?
A. The communities are vulnerable to unregulated Arctic or polar shipping. They're not as vulnerable if it's regulated shipping, where the ships would adhere to some higher standards of navigation and safety in the Arctic. There are some voluntary rules in the International Maritime Organization, the U.N. organization. They aren't mandatory yet. Those rules are now being developed by ... the international community. But that's a fairly slow process because Arctic shipping isn't rapidly developing, but people see that it's coming down the road. So the vision is that there needs to be greater attention to the environmental protection and marine safety aspects of marine shipping in the Arctic.
Q. We have time then?
A. Will we have time? Yes. Sure. Because, really, most of the shipping companies of the world won't take a nonicebreaking ship. They know there's ice there today, and they know it's a very complicated Arctic Ocean with sea ice cover. And they're not just going to steam through Bering Strait into the ice. They're just not going to do that.
ARCTIC OCEAN: More ice recession may draw ships north.
By DOUG O'HARRA
Anchorage Daily News
www.adn.com/
(Published: March 20, 2005)
Part #2
Q. It sounds like it was thick enough and difficult enough that you couldn't be traveling that route for commercial reasons.
A. It depends on what kind of ship, how fancy it is, how ice-strengthened it is. Would you need an expensive ice breaking ship to do it commercially? Sure. But that's not what we were out there for. The answer to this stuff is that at the end of the 20th century, from 1977 up until the present, nuclear and nonnuclear icebreakers have gone essentially everywhere in the Arctic Ocean basin in the summer. I think that's an amazing story and a big change. These pioneering voyages have taken place, I wouldn't say sight unseen, but with all the other exploits -- like putting a man on the moon, and all the other exploits that we've done-- this doesn't get much visibility. But it's quite clearly very significant.
Q. How much additional ship traffic will we see along Alaska's coast?
A. That's a tough one. I don't have any good answers. I guess I would say we will see more research vessels, cruise ships, maybe fishing vessels in the northern part of the Bering Sea and in the Bering Strait. We don't know how many container ships or tankers we might see in that part of the world in the next couple decades. It's not clear. Could there be ships either going to the Russian Arctic or the Canadian Arctic to pick up some sort of mineral resources? Sure, that's a plausible scenario, because maybe there would be a longer navigation season to parts along the Russian Arctic or the Canadian Arctic. Again, these ships that sail through the Bering Strait could, but might not, go trans-Arctic. They might go to some destination in the Russian Arctic along the coast and pick up their cargo and they come back through the Bering Strait. Maybe they just do it during the summer. Now that's a possibility.
Q. If the ice has retreated so much from the Northern Sea Route, why aren't shippers using it already as a short cut to Europe from Japan?
A. It's the year-to-year variability of the ice. One year you may have open water, zero or low coverage of ice, and the next year you might have 100 percent coverage in some of these straits. But again, again, that does not mean that there will not be lots of ships -- fishing vessels, cruise ships, whatever -- using parts of the Northwest Passage (or other parts of the Arctic). It only means that trans-Arctic navigation is still a wild card.
Q. In other words, a big container ship bound for Europe or the Pacific can't just decide, "Oh, it's open this month. Let's go." Like, in July, they can't just say, "Let's shoot up over the Arctic Ocean."
A. No, no, no. I mean, this has to be planned, probably years in advance but at least months in advance. That is the tricky part. You have to have: "It's reliable. And year around. And your one ship is part of a team of ships."
Q. They can't take the chance that they would get a thousand miles up there and get delayed.
A. Particularly if the cargo is perishable. Or even the Toyotas. Well, I shouldn't say Toyotas, but the cars that are coming over. They're not perishable, but people have ordered them already, so there's this just-in-time kind thing, you've got to keep this flow going.
Q. Will we need new regulations or laws to set standards to protect Alaska from ships once it does become economic? What do we need to do to be prepared?
A. There are a number of groups working on that. We have a group of the Arctic Research Commission just beginning. Commissioner Mead Treadwell (of Anchorage) is leading, along with commissioner Duane Laible. He's from Seattle. ... And it's to scope out the research agenda for the United States for the federal agencies on just what do we need to do given that it's obvious that there will be greater marine access.
Q. The Malaysian-flagged soybean carrier Selendang Ayu lost engines in the Bering Sea in December and grounded on Unalaska island, spilling hundreds of thousands of gallons of oil. If it could happen in the Bering Sea, couldn't it also happen in the Arctic Ocean?
A. That's the issue. That's why when we're headed into the Arctic Ocean -- and when I say "we," I mean the circumpolar countries and all industry -- the systems need to be designed for both environmental protection and marine safety. All of that has to be done before the ships go up there. So if you send ships into the Arctic Ocean that have no standards for sailing in the polar region, well, that's probably not a great idea.
Q. How vulnerable are Alaska's coastal communities to this increased shipping?
A. The communities are vulnerable to unregulated Arctic or polar shipping. They're not as vulnerable if it's regulated shipping, where the ships would adhere to some higher standards of navigation and safety in the Arctic. There are some voluntary rules in the International Maritime Organization, the U.N. organization. They aren't mandatory yet. Those rules are now being developed by ... the international community. But that's a fairly slow process because Arctic shipping isn't rapidly developing, but people see that it's coming down the road. So the vision is that there needs to be greater attention to the environmental protection and marine safety aspects of marine shipping in the Arctic.
Q. We have time then?
A. Will we have time? Yes. Sure. Because, really, most of the shipping companies of the world won't take a nonicebreaking ship. They know there's ice there today, and they know it's a very complicated Arctic Ocean with sea ice cover. And they're not just going to steam through Bering Strait into the ice. They're just not going to do that.